I thought I would return to the days of yesteryear and comment on the doings in Ukraine….you remember them right?
They were the ‘popular’ war before the mash-up in Gaza that everyone was thrilled with departing their take on that situation.
Of course most of them were wrong but that’s alright they deserve their say….
Remember the much stated line of “As long as it takes”? Meaning the war will continue until Russia is brought to its knees.
It turns out that “as long as it takes” may mean little more than 21 months. In fact, for months, the United States has been critical of Ukraine’s strategy and tactics. The German magazine Bild reported last week that Biden was going back on his word, that the U.S. and Germany would both begin to softly pressure Ukraine to go to the negotiating table with Russia. Bild‘s report was hotly denied by the administration, but the truth is that the great blob of respectable foreign-policy opinion that supports the Biden policy in Ukraine is wriggling itself into a new position.
So if the reports are valid what’s next for Ukraine?
As Ukraine’s counteroffensive begins to unravel, it is not clear that the hundreds of thousands of deaths already suffered have purchased any of its goals.
Ukraine is not in NATO, and it has not received any firm assurance that it will ever be. All that has happened is that the fifteen year old promise that Ukraine will some day become a member of NATO has been updated to a promise that Ukraine will “join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.” Recognizing the ruse, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has bitterly complained that “It’s unprecedented and absurd when time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership. While at the same time vague wording about ‘conditions’ is added even for inviting Ukraine.”
Ukraine is not whole. It has not pushed Russia off its land or reacquired any significant amount of contested territory. Donbass and Crimea remain firmly in Russia’s control. No Ukrainian advance severed Crimea from the mainland. Indeed, as the New York Times pointed out at the end of September, during this counteroffensive Ukraine actually lost more territory than it gained.
Seriously? The move now is to negotiate and end to this conflict and yet the same thing could have been accomplished in March of 2022…..
David Arakhamia, a high-ranking member of Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People political party, said that Kyiv could have ended the war with Russia after a month if it agreed not to join NATO. The official said that Moscow was not concerned about other issues, such as “denazification,” but only wanted Kyiv to agree to neutrality.
In an interview with TV channel 1+1, a Ukrainian network, Arakhamia confirmed previous reporting that Moscow and Kyiv had nearly agreed to end the war in March 2022. Still, Ukraine’s Western backers pushed it to try to win the war against Russia. “They really hoped almost to the last moment that they would force us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality,” Arakhamia said.” It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to – as Finland once did – neutrality, and committed that we would not join NATO.”
Arakhamia, who led the Ukrainian negotiation team, said that other issues, such as the protection of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and the “denazification” of the government in Kyiv, were less important to Moscow. “In fact, [neutrality] was the key point.” He continued, “Everything else was simply rhetoric and political ‘seasoning’ about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah-blah-blah.”
Arakhamia explained that while Kyiv’s Western backers did not discourage talks, they advised against accepting a deal. “They actually advised us not to go into ephemeral security guarantees, which could not have been given at that time at all,” he stated during the interview.
The statements in the interview by Arakhamia confirm several reports from other officials – Russian, Turkish, and American – that a deal was offered by the Kremlin in the early days of the war to withdraw Russian forces to the prewar lines in exchange for Kyiv’s vow to never join NATO.
Now, after 20 months of war, Ukraine’s Western backers are discussing Kyiv’s opening dialogue with Moscow. Since the talks in the early months of the conflict, Russia has annexed four regions of Ukraine, suggesting Moscow is likely to demand more territorial concessions than what was once on the table for Kyiv.
(antiwar.com)
Sounds like the US is trying to save money so they can funnel it into the coffers of Israel….at least to me.
On another front….politics….
Looks like Zelensky will have a challenger (possibly two) if and when he allows elections in Ukraine….
Internal polling in Ukraine shows that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could lose a presidential election if he faces off with Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, The Economist reported on Tuesday.
So far, Zaluzhny has not expressed an interest in entering the political fray, but he’s been rumored to be a potential candidate. It’s also been reported that he’s been at odds with Zelensky, a spat that spilled into the public after Zaluzhny called the war against Russia a stalemate and said there would likely be no “deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
Zelensky, who is still claiming Ukraine can win, later took a swipe at Zaluzhny, saying Ukrainian generals should stay out of politics. “If a military man decided to do politics, it is his right, then he should enter politics, and then he can’t deal with war,” Zelensky said.
But polling shows the Ukrainian public trusts Zaluzhny more than the country’s political leadership, as Kyiv has been rocked by corruption scandals.
The Economist report reads: “The figures, which date from mid-November, show trust in the president has fallen to a net +32%, less than half that of the still revered General Mr Zaluzhny (+70%). Ukraine’s spychief, Kyrylo Budanov, also has better ratings than the president (+45%).”
Ukraine’s next presidential election is scheduled for March 2024, but Zelensky has ruled out holding one due to the war because Ukraine’s constitution prohibits holding a vote under martial law. Zelensky previously suggested he could hold an election if the West foots the bill but later ruled out the idea.
“I believe that elections are not appropriate at this time,” Zelensky said earlier this month. For now, the Ukrainian public agrees that there shouldn’t be an election. The same polling cited by The Economist said eight out of ten Ukrainians are against holding elections, but things could change as the war drags on with no end or victory in sight.
(antiwar.com)
Zelensky will hang on to the purse strings of Ukraine as long as he can.
NATO says be prepared for bad news….
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Saturday that the alliance must be prepared for bad news about Ukraine and urged support for continuing the proxy war against Russia.
“Wars develop in phases,” Stoltenberg told the German broadcaster ARD. “We have to support Ukraine in both good and bad times. We should also be prepared for bad news.”
Stoltenberg acknowledged Ukraine has been unable to “move the front line” but claimed Ukrainian forces were still achieving “big victories.” He previously argued that Ukraine was having some success because it was inflicting heavy losses on Russia, although Kyiv is currently facing a serious manpower shortage.
(antiwar.com)
This conflict needs to end….for the sake of the Ukrainian people who are doing the majority of the suffering.
I Have Spoken, It Is Written
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”